What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 52¢ (52% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 138.2% and 149.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 55% probability that WTI front-month crude will touch $120.01 by year-end 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 312% and vol ratio of 2.75 suggest significant uncertainty around oil price trajectories over the next 259 days.

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52¢

Bid/Ask 51/57¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $5,495.76·OI $128,941.68·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120

7-day price498 snapshots · 106 regime

80¢51¢ current

Apr 826¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

The market is pricing in a 55% probability that WTI front-month crude will touch $120.01 by year-end 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 312% and vol ratio of 2.75 suggest significant uncertainty around oil price trajectories over the next 259 days. The Yes side's 146.8% annualized implied yield appears attractive relative to the No side's 135.5%, though the recent 7-day price decline from 56¢ to 49¢ indicates recent bearish sentiment, and the modest $13,650 daily volume raises liquidity concerns for larger position sizing. With neutral regime conditions and a 1.0 information arrival rate, this market appears fairly balanced but should be monitored for geopolitical shocks that could rapidly move crude prices toward the $120 threshold.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 11¢(Δ +41¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 37282.9%Close-time delta 5900h

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $120 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 138.2%

IY (No) 149.7%

Adj IY 73%

CRI 1

Overround 2.2%

LAS 0.02

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	138.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	149.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	73%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:56:45 AM

SF edge 28.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (4)

NO +28¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +30¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +38¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +27¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →