What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 49¢ (49% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 279.2% and 74.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $125.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 45¢ price reflects a modest 45% probability that WTI will touch $125.01 at some point over the next 259 days, implying the market sees current oil dynamics as unlikely to drive such a spike despite the contract's binary "maximum" structure favoring upside surprises.

████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

49¢

Bid/Ask 34/47¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $1,334.62·OI $85,365.57·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T125

7-day price448 snapshots · 87 regime

69¢34¢ current

Apr 823¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

The 45¢ price reflects a modest 45% probability that WTI will touch $125.01 at some point over the next 259 days, implying the market sees current oil dynamics as unlikely to drive such a spike despite the contract's binary "maximum" structure favoring upside surprises. The extremely high realized volatility of 340% and vol ratio of 2.81 suggest traders are pricing in substantial oil price swings, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 186.9% appears stretched relative to the neutral regime score of 0.442, indicating potential mispricing or hedging demand skewing the odds. Notably, the market has drifted down 5¢ over seven days on modest $2,972 daily volume, suggesting thin liquidity that could amplify moves if geopolitical or supply shocks materialize.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ +42¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 61220.6%Close-time delta 5900h

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $125 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 279.2%

IY (No) 74.1%

Adj IY 82%

CRI 2

Overround 2.2%

LAS 0.41

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	279.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	74.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	82%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.41	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:56:39 AM

SF edge 27.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (4)

NO +27¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +26¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +41¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +21¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T125 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →