Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 35¢ price implies only a 35% probability of WTI reaching $130.01 by end-2026, despite the extraordinary 262% annualized yield on the Yes side—suggesting either significant risk premium or market skepticism about oil prices spiking 60%+ from current levels over 259 days.
Analysis
The 35¢ price implies only a 35% probability of WTI reaching $130.01 by end-2026, despite the extraordinary 262% annualized yield on the Yes side—suggesting either significant risk premium or market skepticism about oil prices spiking 60%+ from current levels over 259 days. The extremely high realized volatility of 425% and vol ratio of 3.15 indicate oil markets are pricing in substantial uncertainty, yet the modest $2,692 daily volume and tight $81k open interest suggest limited conviction and potential liquidity constraints for larger positions. The neutral regime (0.442) and low cliff risk (2) indicate no imminent structural shifts, making this appear to be a pure directional bet on an aggressive oil price move rather than a tail-risk scenario.
Also on polymarket at 4¢(Δ +38¢)
Resolution rules
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $130 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (4)
Trade
sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T130 yes 100