Apr 2026 temperature increase?

The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 67% over seven days from 24¢ to 40¢, suggesting either new climate data or shifting expectations about April 2026 temperatures. The 41% probability pricing appears aggressive given the extraordinarily high implied yields (1882% for Yes, 941% risk-adjusted), which typically indicate either mispricing or extreme tail-risk positioning in a thin market with only $993 open interest and a 9¢ spread. With just 29 days until expiry and a narrow resolution band (1.17-1.23°C), the low liquidity and taker-dominated regime create meaningful execution risk for larger positions.

Resolution rules

If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Apr 2026 is between 1.17-1.23, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade