Apr 2026 temperature increase?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Apr 2026 temperature increase?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,665% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 124% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues the narrow 1.24-1.30°C temperature band for April 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,665% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 124% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues the narrow 1.24-1.30°C temperature band for April 2026. The sharp 7-day decline from 18¢ to 9¢ (before recovering to 14¢) combined with minimal $250 daily volume and a wide 8¢ spread indicates low liquidity and potential manipulation, while the maximal 10 Cliff Risk Index warns of binary resolution risk near the contract's 29-day expiry on 5/16/2026. The taker-dominated regime (0.636 score) suggests informed traders are actively selling into strength, which may explain why this contract trades at odds with climate data suggesting April 2026 temperatures are likely to fall within or near the resolution range.
Resolution rules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Apr 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHMONTHRANGE-26APR-B1.270 yes 100