Will the Democratic Party win the AR-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% Democratic probability in Arkansas's 3rd district, a heavily Republican seat where the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches an extraordinary 1,846%—suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge for contrarian bettors. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $14.9M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates the market is largely frozen with no recent price discovery, making the 9¢ quote potentially stale. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a liquidity trap rather than a genuine pricing opportunity, as the extreme yield likely reflects the difficulty of exiting rather than true expected returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade