No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the "Yes" position (no rate change) trading at just 4¢ despite historical precedent suggesting rate holds are plausible outcomes for the Brazilian central bank. The implied yield of 75,122% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects illiquidity rather than genuine probability—the $16,480 open interest is modest for such a volatile contract, and the 1¢ spread is tight relative to the price level. The sharp 55% price collapse over seven days (9¢ to 4¢) combined with only 12 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 24 suggests either informed traders are heavily betting on a rate change, or the market is simply too thin to price accurately.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade