Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price implying only 6% probability of a rate increase, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 8,975% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquidity and potential arbitrage. The $3.3M open interest contrasts sharply with just $8.48 in 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread, indicating this is a thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect true probabilities. With 64 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2,394%, the market has doubled in price over 7 days (3¢ to 6¢), suggesting recent information arrival or positioning shifts that haven't yet stabilized the market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade