Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 84¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 12¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 84¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 12¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—21.8% for Yes versus 599.7% for No—suggest the market is pricing in very low tail risk for sub-0.5% YoY growth, though the high cliff risk index (5) indicates resolution uncertainty. With 320 days to expiry, the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests minimal recent conviction, and traders should demand significant liquidity improvement before treating this as a reliable signal for Brazilian economic growth expectations.
Resolution rules
If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 0.5% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T0.5 yes 100