Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
14 contracts
Closes
Mar 2, 2027
205 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above” vs “Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T1.5
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 2.1%?: Above 2.1%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T2.1
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T2.0
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T1.9
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T1.8
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.7%?: Above 1.7%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T1.7
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXBRAZILGDP-26SEP02-T1.6
Cluster 2
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 0.5%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T0.5
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 3.5%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.5
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 3.0%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T3.0
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 2.5%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.5
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 2.0%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.0
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 1.5%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.5
Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 1.0%
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.0
Analysis
This 45% probability represents a forecast that Brazilian year-over-year GDP growth will exceed a specific threshold in February 2027. The current assessment reflects mixed economic signals: Brazil's recent quarterly growth has ranged between 1.5–1.9% annually, and the market is pricing in roughly even odds for stronger versus weaker performance ahead. Key drivers include monetary policy decisions by Brazil's central bank, inflation trajectory, and external commodity price movements affecting export demand. The February 2027 GDP release—scheduled by Brazil's statistics agency (IBGE) for late March 2027—will definitively resolve this forecast. Until then, traders are monitoring real interest rate expectations, currency stability, and incoming labor market data as leading indicators of growth momentum.
- ›Q2 2026 Brazilian GDP growth has been tracking in the 1.5–1.9% YoY range based on available high-frequency data and consensus expectations
- ›Central bank policy stance: higher real interest rates (currently around 10.5% nominal) are expected to moderate growth in H2 2026, creating downward pressure
- ›External demand and commodity prices remain volatile; a sustained decline in agricultural or energy prices could weigh on Q4 2026/Q1 2027 growth
- ›The IBGE will release February 2027 GDP figures in late March 2027, providing the definitive outcome; preliminary indicators arrive weeks earlier
- ›Real exchange rate depreciation could boost exports but reflects underlying inflation concerns that may constrain domestic demand
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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