What is the current probability for "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 77¢ (77% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 2, 2027. 315 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 36.6% and 367.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 77¢ price unreliable for actual trading.

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77¢

Bid/Ask 76/88¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $3·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining

KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.0

7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime

77¢76¢ current

Apr 1176¢Apr 11

Analysis

4d ago

This market is essentially illiquid with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 77¢ price unreliable for actual trading. The extreme 361.7% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing given the neutral regime and 320-day timeframe, though the minimal liquidity undermines confidence in this signal. With a 12¢ spread and flat price action over seven days, this appears to be a stale, low-conviction market where the quoted probability should be treated with significant skepticism.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 1.0% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 36.6%

IY (No) 367.3%

Adj IY 184%

CRI 3

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	36.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	367.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	184%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:03:57 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →