Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price unreliable for serious positioning. The 12¢ spread is wide relative to the contract value, and the extreme 186.3% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing—likely reflecting the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction that Brazilian YoY GDP will fall below 1.5%. With 320 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should wait for deeper liquidity before committing capital to this contract.
Resolution rules
If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 1.5% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.5 yes 100