Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price unreliable for serious positioning.

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64¢
Bid/Ask 62/74¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.5

Analysis

4d ago

This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price unreliable for serious positioning. The 12¢ spread is wide relative to the contract value, and the extreme 186.3% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing—likely reflecting the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction that Brazilian YoY GDP will fall below 1.5%. With 320 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should wait for deeper liquidity before committing capital to this contract.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 1.5% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 71.1%
IY (No) 189.2%
Adj IY 95%
CRI 2
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)71.1%
IY (No)189.2%
Adj IY95%
CRI2
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:03:56 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T1.5 yes 100

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