What is the current probability for "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 2, 2027. 315 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 246.5% and 54.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market shows severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal.

███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

38¢mid

Bid/Ask 32/44¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining

KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.0

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal. The 12¢ spread and extreme 242.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggest either a pricing error or genuine market skepticism that Brazilian YoY GDP will exceed 2.0% in Q4 2026, though with 320 days to expiry there's substantial time for conditions to shift. The neutral regime score and low cliff risk indicate no immediate catalysts are priced in, but traders should be cautious given the complete absence of liquidity for execution.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 2.0% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 246.5%

IY (No) 54.6%

Adj IY 77%

CRI 2

Overround 1.9%

LAS 0.38

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	246.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	54.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	77%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.38	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:04:07 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →