Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing March 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 557.7% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable as a true probability signal.

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23¢mid
Bid/Ask 17/29¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Mar 2, 2027·315d remaining
KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.5

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 557.7% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable as a true probability signal. The 12¢ spread and 0¢ current price suggest the market hasn't attracted meaningful participation despite 320 days to expiry, indicating either low trader interest in Brazilian GDP forecasts or uncertainty about the resolution criteria tied to Q4 2026 data. The moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5 and neutral regime score suggest no imminent volatility catalyst, but traders should be cautious entering this illiquid position given the wide bid-ask gap and potential for slippage.

Resolution rules

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) is above 2.5% for Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 566.3%
IY (No) 23.8%
Adj IY 83%
CRI 5
Overround 1.9%
LAS 0.71
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)566.3%
IY (No)23.8%
Adj IY83%
CRI5
Overround1.9%
LAS0.71

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:03:56 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBRAZILGDP-27FEB-T2.5 yes 100

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