Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: DMK
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 18 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.0M
18 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
918 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris
0xb3298a…2501
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
0xce9a5f…f34a
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Cluster 3
California Governor Election Winner
Cluster 4
Maine Senate Election Winner
Cluster 5
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Cluster 6
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?: Abelardo de la Espriella
0xb611b3…e325
Cluster 7
Puducherry Legislative Assembly Election Winner: AINRC
Puducherry Legislative Assembly Election Winner: AINRC
0x39f49a…ba5a
What moved the line
- Apr 30AINRC↑25pp68→93¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Tucker Carlson↑23pp3→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Tucker Carlson↓23pp26→3¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28AINRC↓21pp84→63¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Kamala Harris↑15pp5→20¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.