Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: DMK
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris
0xb3298a…2501
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat
0x66bbf6…639c
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Analysis
The 32% probability reflects market expectations that the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) will win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election. Tamil Nadu's electoral history shows competitive contests between the DMK and AIADMK, with outcomes often determined by local governance records, caste coalition dynamics, and regional leadership performance. The DMK's current standing reflects both its recent incumbency advantage and competitive pressure from opposition parties. The main factors shaping this probability include voter sentiment on the state government's performance, the composition of electoral alliances, and turnout patterns in key districts. The decisive resolution will come when Tamil Nadu holds its next assembly election, which would reveal actual voting behavior and settle all uncertainty around seat distribution and government formation.
- ›DMK's tenure record as incumbent government and public satisfaction metrics on welfare schemes and infrastructure projects
- ›Opposition coalition strength and whether AIADMK contests independently or forms alliances that could fragment anti-DMK votes
- ›Caste and regional demographic shifts affecting voting blocs, particularly among Dalit, backward caste, and urban middle-class constituencies
- ›Campaign effectiveness and any major scandals or governance crises emerging before election notification
- ›Historical precedent showing Tamil Nadu has alternated between DMK and AIADMK rule, with 32% suggesting competitive but challenging odds for the incumbent
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 1d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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