China coup attempt before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that China coup attempt before 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x67619e99976fae938097536fe3cd4b31f282f00028cff1586fb0776f864c89d6 yes 100