China x Taiwan military clash before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
9%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$134K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
0x4c80df…d584
Analysis
This 21% probability represents the likelihood of military engagement between China and Taiwan before year-end 2026. The estimate reflects significant disagreement between markets (Kalshi at 32%, Polymarket at 17%), suggesting genuine analytical uncertainty. Recent geopolitical tensions, cross-strait rhetoric, and military posturing by both sides inform the upside case, while the status quo of deterrence and economic interdependence supports the lower probability. The resolution will depend on escalation triggers—whether accidental incidents, political transitions, or external interventions tip calculations toward conflict. Near-term catalysts include military exercises, leadership statements on cross-strait policy, and any unplanned encounters between military forces that could spiral beyond control. The roughly 8-month window remaining makes any assessment sensitive to developments that shift perceived red lines or calculations of military advantage.
- ›Current PLA military exercises near Taiwan and their stated frequency, scope, and stated purpose indicate baseline tension levels and readiness posture
- ›Statements by Chinese and Taiwanese leadership on red lines, deterrence thresholds, and unification timelines directly affect market participants' assessment of intent
- ›U.S. military positioning in the region, official statements on Taiwan defense commitments, and weapons delivery schedules influence perceived constraints on Chinese action
- ›Accidental military encounters or incidents (ship collisions, aircraft proximity events) have historically driven short-term probability spikes and establish precedent for escalation management
- ›Economic data, trade disruption signals, and investor capital flows to Taiwan and China may reflect private-sector assessment of conflict risk and affect market pricing
Recently closed in china
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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