Will the Republican Party win the CT-05 House seat?

The Republican contract has collapsed 43% over seven days (from 16¢ to 9¢), now pricing in just a 9% win probability for the GOP in this Democratic-leaning Connecticut district. The extreme 1836% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply unfavorable odds, though the modest $28 daily volume and $10,979 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as we approach the November 2026 election. The 10/10 cliff risk index warrants caution, indicating potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift materially in the district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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