Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?

This market prices Ethereum reaching a new all-time high by September 30, 2026 at just 8¢, implying only an 8% probability despite 167 days remaining and Ethereum currently trading near $3,500 (well below its $4,891 November 2021 ATH). The extreme 2513% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $539 and a 1.95 volatility ratio suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, particularly given Ethereum's historical tendency to reach new ATHs during bull markets and the substantial timeframe available. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate the market hasn't yet priced in the significant macro catalyst risk that could drive such a move, making this potentially undervalued for risk-tolerant traders despite the high cliff risk index of 12.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT between 16 December '25 16:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

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