Ethereum all time high by ___
Leader sits at 6% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$666
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ethereum all time high by ___
Analysis
This reflects the probability that Ethereum reaches a new all-time high by year-end 2026. The 13% probability suggests market participants view a substantial price advance as unlikely within the next seven months. The main factors shaping this view are Ethereum's current price level relative to its previous peak (set in November 2021 near $4,900), the broader cryptocurrency market momentum, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets. Ethereum's performance typically correlates with Bitcoin's moves, though it has historically lagged during bull markets. The key uncertainty resolves on December 31, 2026, though interim price movements and regulatory developments could shift expectations throughout the year. Lower trading volume on Ethereum contracts compared to Bitcoin equivalents suggests fewer participants are positioned in these markets.
- ›Ethereum's current price compared to its November 2021 all-time high of approximately $4,891
- ›Bitcoin's momentum and ability to reach new highs, given Ethereum's historical correlation with Bitcoin during market cycles
- ›Regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets, particularly regarding staking, smart contracts, and institutional adoption
- ›Total cryptocurrency market capitalization trends and macroeconomic conditions affecting broader risk-asset demand
- ›Sustained institutional inflows and on-chain activity metrics indicating genuine demand versus speculative price action
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.