Bitcoin all time high by ___
Leader sits at 7% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin all time high by ___
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026. The 21% aggregate probability suggests traders see it as unlikely but plausible within the next eight months. Bitcoin's current price relative to its previous peak of approximately $69,000 (reached in November 2024) is the primary driver—the asset would need substantial appreciation to set a new record. Market sentiment is split: Kalshi traders price the odds at 32%, while Polymarket traders are more skeptical at 18%, indicating genuine disagreement about near-term momentum. Key factors include macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption trends. The June 30, 2026 contract is the most actively traded, suggesting that timeframe is where market uncertainty concentrates. Bitcoin's performance over the next two quarters will largely determine whether this outcome occurs.
- ›Bitcoin's price must appreciate approximately 20-30% from current levels to surpass the November 2024 all-time high of ~$69,000
- ›Kalshi traders assign 32% probability versus Polymarket's 18%, indicating material disagreement that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- ›June 30, 2026 contract trades at 3¢ with $8,412 daily volume, the most liquid Bitcoin ATH contract, concentrating uncertainty in the next 10 weeks
- ›Bitcoin has experienced multiple cycles of boom-bust volatility; sustained upward pressure typically requires either macro tailwinds or major adoption catalysts
- ›The September 30 contract trades at only 11¢, suggesting declining conviction as the year progresses, indicating markets price lower odds for longer-dated milestones
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.