Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $2 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 5¢ spread on a 4¢ price, yet it's pricing in an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $2 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 5¢ spread on a 4¢ price, yet it's pricing in an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side. The realized volatility of 8,345% and cliff risk index of 19 suggest this micro-liquidity market is highly unstable and potentially mispriced, with the Yes contract's probability (4%) appearing artificially depressed given Ethereum's historical price ranges and the narrow $2,230-$2,269.99 resolution band. With only 5 days to expiry and virtually no trading activity, this market lacks sufficient depth to be a reliable price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2230-2269.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2250 yes 100