Game 3: Dallas at Minnesota Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Game 3: Dallas at Minnesota Winner?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a 3086% implied yield on the Yes side and realized volatility of 1501%, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity crisis rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a 3086% implied yield on the Yes side and realized volatility of 1501%, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity crisis rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-cent spread on a 47-cent contract is notably wide relative to the $282.30 open interest, and the price has declined 5 cents over seven days despite an approaching May 7 expiry that should narrow uncertainty as the April 22 game date nears. With only $267.44 in 24-hour volume and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a thin, potentially illiquid market where the yield metrics are distorted by low trading activity rather than reflecting actionable edge.
Resolution rules
If DAL Stars wins the Game 3: Dallas at Minnesota professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR22DALMIN-DAL yes 100