Game 4: Edmonton at Anaheim Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Game 4: Edmonton at Anaheim Winner?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $23.51 in 24-hour volume against $39.51 open interest, creating a concerning 14¢ spread and implausibly high implied yields (3199% for Yes, 927% for No) that reflect pricing dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $23.51 in 24-hour volume against $39.51 open interest, creating a concerning 14¢ spread and implausibly high implied yields (3199% for Yes, 927% for No) that reflect pricing dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day price collapse from 12¢ to 35¢ suggests recent information arrival (1.8/h rate) has dramatically shifted sentiment toward Anaheim, though the 1581% realized volatility and 3.36 vol ratio indicate extreme uncertainty that may not be fully captured by the current 42¢ quote. With 21 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where position sizing should be minimal given the illiquidity and potential for sharp reversals.
Resolution rules
If ANA Ducks wins the Game 4: Edmonton at Anaheim professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR26EDMANA-ANA yes 100