What is the current probability for "Game 4: New York at Atlanta Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 26, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 4: New York at Atlanta Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 109.3% and 62971.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 4: New York at Atlanta Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 4: New York at Atlanta Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Game 4: New York at Atlanta Winner?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. The New York contract has surged 48% over seven days to 63¢, reflecting strong recent momentum, though the 21-day expiry and $2.9M open interest suggest moderate liquidity for a sports betting market.

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99¢

Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $14,842,569.31·OI $8,302,359.09·Closes Apr 26, 2026·14d remaining

KXNBAGAME-26APR25NYKATL-NYK

7-day price200 snapshots · 125 regime

96¢96¢ current

Apr 1640¢Apr 26

Analysis

7d ago

The New York contract has surged 48% over seven days to 63¢, reflecting strong recent momentum, though the 21-day expiry and $2.9M open interest suggest moderate liquidity for a sports betting market. The extreme implied yields—1065% for Yes and 2835% for No—indicate severe mispricing or binary event risk, with realized volatility at 257% and a low vol ratio of 0.79 pointing to potential mean reversion. The tight 1¢ spread and steady 1.1 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is actively pricing in new information, though the neutral regime score warrants caution before treating this sharp move as directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If New York wins the Game 4: New York at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 109.3%

IY (No) 62971.7%

Adj IY 62317%

CRI 24

RV 463%

VR 3.32

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	109.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	62971.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	62317%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	463%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/26/2026, 1:36:43 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 12:08:51 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR25NYKATL-NYK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →