Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The Odyssey is priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with a staggering 3,396% implied yield on the yes side, suggesting either minimal market confidence in this film's commercial viability or potential mispricing given the 258 days to resolution.
Analysis
The Odyssey is priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with a staggering 3,396% implied yield on the yes side, suggesting either minimal market confidence in this film's commercial viability or potential mispricing given the 258 days to resolution. The 1¢ spread and modest $443.55 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, which combined with the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24, creates execution risk for larger positions despite the theoretically attractive odds. With $51.7M in open interest and the yes side implying only a 4% chance of topping 2026's domestic box office, this appears to be a speculative long positioned against consensus expectations for major studio releases.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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Trade
sf trade 0x6ec4fec4885df7f3ac46e5d0051beb6d8ac75de6a8481f13f245ff26dcb4b662 yes 100