Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)

The Houston Dynamo -1.5 spread contract has collapsed 46% over seven days to just 26¢, pricing in only a 26% probability of a dominant two-goal-plus victory despite $89.5k open interest and an 18¢ bid-ask spread. With zero 24-hour volume, extreme realized volatility of 3,106%, and an absurd 15,331% implied yield on the Yes side, this appears to be a stale or illiquid position where the price may not reflect current market consensus ahead of the April 22 match. The 7-day expiry and high cliff risk (score 3) suggest this contract is approaching resolution with minimal trading activity to validate the current valuation.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Dynamo" if Houston Dynamo win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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Trade