Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$670
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
710 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Analysis
This market reflects a 28% probability that at least one of five major economic indicators will breach specified thresholds before July 2028: unemployment exceeding 10%, the S&P 500 declining over 30%, home values dropping 10% year-over-year in major metros, labor share of GDI falling below 50%, or CPI-U turning negative. The current probability suggests traders assess severe economic deterioration as unlikely but meaningful. The level would likely shift with incoming labor market data, equity market performance, and housing market trends. The monthly BLS unemployment reports and quarterly GDI releases provide frequent resolution data, with CPI-U monthly releases offering the most frequent update window. Key economic data releases over the next 24 months will be critical; any single substantial shock could materially move this probability.
- ›S&P 500 closing price on issuance date serves as fixed baseline; any sustained 30%+ decline triggers resolution regardless of other metrics
- ›Monthly unemployment figures and quarterly GDI labor share data provide regular opportunities for threshold breaches
- ›Housing market weakness in specified metros (NYC, LA, SF, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix) requires 10% YoY Zillow Home Value Index declines
- ›CPI-U year-over-year deflation in any monthly release before July 2028 represents disinflationary pressure scenario
- ›Contract remains unresolved through mid-2028 unless at least one threshold is exceeded, creating multi-year uncertainty window
Recently closed in general
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 1d
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- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 5d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 5d
- Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.