Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)

This market has collapsed from 47¢ to 16¢ over seven days with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the Yes side (Houston winning by 3+) is now heavily disfavored despite an extreme 28,280% implied yield that reflects the illiquidity trap. With only $88.71 open interest, $0 daily volume, and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this is a classic low-liquidity dead market where the price likely reflects stale information rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day expiry and massive realized volatility (4,343%) indicate this contract experienced a sharp repricing event, possibly from late-breaking team news or injury reports, making it unreliable for actual prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Dynamo" if Houston Dynamo win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Regime

Trade