Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)

This San Diego FC -1.5 spread contract has collapsed 62% over seven days to just 18¢, reflecting extremely low conviction in a decisive home victory with only $82.39 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The astronomical 24,539% implied yield on the Yes side and extreme realized volatility of 4,152% suggest this is a highly illiquid, speculative position where the pricing may not reflect true match probabilities—the Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicates significant tail risk as we approach the April 23 expiration. With an information arrival rate of 2.3 events per hour and the underlying MLS match scheduled for April 22, any team news or line movement on traditional sportsbooks could trigger sharp repricing in this thin market.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego FC" if San Diego FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Houston Dynamo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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