Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)

This San Diego FC -2.5 spread contract has collapsed from 46¢ to 13¢ over seven days, reflecting drastically diminished win probability, though the $0 volume and $81.375 open interest suggest minimal liquidity for execution. The extreme 36,049% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates severe mispricing or potential resolution ambiguity, likely driven by the market's illiquidity rather than genuine edge. With only 7 days to expiry and near-zero trading activity, this appears to be a dead market where the price may not reflect true probabilities.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego FC" if San Diego FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Houston Dynamo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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