Houston wins by over 4.5 points?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Houston wins by over 4.5 points?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market displays extreme annualized yields (2297% for Yes, 2120% for No) driven by its imminent 17-day expiry, though the modest $764.84 daily volume and tight $475.84 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings.
Analysis
This market displays extreme annualized yields (2297% for Yes, 2120% for No) driven by its imminent 17-day expiry, though the modest $764.84 daily volume and tight $475.84 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 49¢ price implies a near coin-flip outcome, yet the realized volatility of 339% and neutral regime indicate significant uncertainty remains despite the market's proximity to resolution on 5/6/2026. The stable 7-day price movement (50¢ to 49¢) and low info arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour suggest the market has largely priced in available information, making further directional moves unlikely absent breaking news about player availability or injury.
Resolution rules
If Houston wins the Houston at Los Angeles L professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026 by more than 4.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBASPREAD-26APR21HOULAL-HOU4 yes 100