How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, minimal $30 open interest, and an 18¢ spread despite a 260-day runway to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, minimal $30 open interest, and an 18¢ spread despite a 260-day runway to expiry. The price has collapsed 76% over seven days (29¢ to 7¢), suggesting either forced liquidation or a sharp repricing lower as rate expectations have declined, yet the 1,868% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the remaining holders are pricing in substantial tail risk for 30-year rates exceeding 6.8% by end-2026. The moderate 13 cliff risk index and neutral regime score suggest this isn't an imminent binary event, but the combination of dead liquidity and extreme yield asymmetry makes this difficult to trade or hedge meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.8% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.8 yes 100