Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 947% implied yield on the Yes side despite Trump's historical approval ratings rarely exceeding 46%, suggesting the 14¢ price may undervalue the probability of hitting 45% across an entire year window. The zero 24-hour volume and $1,879 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 5¢ spread unreliable for execution, while the 664% realized volatility and 2.16 vol ratio signal this contract experiences outsized price swings relative to fundamentals. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in structural skepticism about Trump's approval trajectory rather than reflecting recent polling data or political momentum.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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