What is the current probability for "Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 49¢ (49% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 155.3% and 143.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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49¢

Bid/Ask 1/96¢·Spread 95¢·Vol $0·OI $48.881·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xb21c480a978a1ad358430a026aa4a7208999550eb1cdcc48a8c6698f9ad4f522

7-day price171 snapshots · 15 regime

50¢49¢ current

Apr 104¢Apr 30

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 6¢(Δ +43¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 2268.2%Close-time delta 180h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 155.3%

IY (No) 143.4%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 1294%

VR 10.58

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	155.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	143.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1294%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.58	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:25:45 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:15 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb21c480a978a1ad358430a026aa4a7208999550eb1cdcc48a8c6698f9ad4f522 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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