Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (10%) for Trump's approval to exceed 48% during the specified period, which seems disconnected from historical precedent—Trump's approval has periodically reached or exceeded this threshold.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (10%) for Trump's approval to exceed 48% during the specified period, which seems disconnected from historical precedent—Trump's approval has periodically reached or exceeded this threshold. The 1,580% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest ($1,831) suggests this is a highly illiquid, potentially mispriced contract where the 10¢ price may reflect thin order books rather than genuine market consensus. With 266 days to resolution and a 12 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries execution risk, and traders should be cautious of the wide 2¢ spread in such a low-liquidity environment.
Also on polymarket at 49¢(Δ -41¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 48%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-48 yes 100