How high will unemployment get before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4427.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.2% on the No side, reflecting the 4¢ price that prices unemployment above 7% as a 1-in-25 event despite current U-3 rates around 4.2%.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4427.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 4.2% on the No side, reflecting the 4¢ price that prices unemployment above 7% as a 1-in-25 event despite current U-3 rates around 4.2%. The sharp 62.5% price decline over seven days (8¢ to 3¢) suggests recent confidence in labor market resilience, though the wide 6¢ spread and modest $225.8 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify moves if sentiment shifts. With 267 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears underpriced relative to historical recession probabilities and tail risks, particularly given the 2026 timeframe captures potential economic deterioration.
Resolution rules
If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-27-7 yes 100