How high will unemployment get before 2030
Leader sits at 83% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 5%
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
Above 6%
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jan 4, 2030
1289 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will unemployment get before 20
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 5%
KXU3MAX-27-5
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 6%
KXU3MAX-27-6
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 9%
KXU3MAX-30-9
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 8%
KXU3MAX-30-8
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 7%
KXU3MAX-30-7
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 6%
KXU3MAX-30-6
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 5%
KXU3MAX-30-5
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 17%
KXU3MAX-30-17
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 15%
KXU3MAX-30-15
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 12%
KXU3MAX-30-12
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 10%
KXU3MAX-30-10
Analysis
This contract prices the probability that U.S. unemployment will reach a certain threshold before the end of 2029. The current 92% price on the leading contract suggests high market confidence in elevated joblessness occurring within this timeframe. Key drivers include economic growth rates, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and labor market resilience. The pricing reflects ongoing uncertainty about recession timing and severity—a sustained slowdown or sharp contraction would likely push unemployment higher, while robust job creation would pressure the probability lower. Monthly employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on the first Friday of each month, will provide the most direct data point for evaluating labor market conditions. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory and inflation persistence will heavily influence whether the unemployment threshold gets breached.
- ›Monthly nonfarm payroll changes and unemployment rate reports determine actual jobless levels against contract thresholds
- ›Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and inflation dynamics affect recession risk and labor demand through 2029
- ›Current labor force participation rates and wage growth patterns indicate slack in the job market or tightness
- ›Historical correlation between GDP growth forecasts and unemployment suggests recession probability is priced into the 92% level
- ›Competing economic contracts show 76% confidence in inflation above 4% in 2026, suggesting stagflation concerns underpin unemployment expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above 5%↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 6%↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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