How high will unemployment get before 2030
Leader sits at 88% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 5%
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Above 6%
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 4, 2030
1232 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will unemployment get before 20
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 4.5%
KXU3MAX-27-4.5
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 9%
KXU3MAX-30-9
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 8%
KXU3MAX-30-8
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 7%
KXU3MAX-30-7
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 6%
KXU3MAX-30-6
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 5%
KXU3MAX-30-5
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 20%
KXU3MAX-30-20
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 17%
KXU3MAX-30-17
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 15%
KXU3MAX-30-15
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 12%
KXU3MAX-30-12
How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 10%
KXU3MAX-30-10
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 7%
KXU3MAX-27-7
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 5%
KXU3MAX-27-5
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 4.8%
KXU3MAX-27-4.8
Analysis
This 88% probability indicates high confidence that unemployment will reach at least the level specified in the leading contract before 2030. The markets are pricing in elevated recession risk or economic slowdown over the next few years. Key factors driving this assessment include current labor market conditions, Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and historical recession patterns. The most significant near-term catalyst will be monthly jobs reports and GDP data releases, which provide real-time signals about labor demand and economic health. Any major shift in inflation or interest-rate expectations could substantially move these probabilities, as would unexpected geopolitical or financial events that alter growth forecasts.
- ›Current unemployment rate relative to historical averages and the specific threshold in the leading contract
- ›Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy stance and market expectations for rate cuts or hikes through 2030
- ›Leading economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, yield curve signals, and consumer confidence data
- ›Historical frequency and severity of recessions within 3-4 year windows and their typical unemployment peaks
- ›Upcoming employment reports and quarterly GDP releases that will provide direct evidence for or against unemployment rising above the contracted threshold
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 8%↑29pp24→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 5%↑27pp61→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 5%↑22pp39→61¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 9%↑7pp38→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above 4.5%↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
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- Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%last 68% · 2d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 47% · 3d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%last 88% · 21d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%last 80% · 21d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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