How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 49,086.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 49,086.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction. The 250% price surge over seven days (2¢ to 7¢) combined with a wide 6¢ spread and modest $1,521 open interest indicates thin order books vulnerable to manipulation or data errors. With only 10 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a low-confidence market where the extreme yield figures are artifacts of illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Resolution rules
If there are exactly 4 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Apr 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26APR-4 yes 100