Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Yes trading at just 10¢ despite United Russia historically dominating Russian elections—the party held 324 seats in the 2021 Duma, making the 295-309 range plausible and arguably underpriced. The 2106% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with critically low 24-hour volume of $61 and a massive 5¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity is driving the distorted pricing rather than genuine bearish conviction. With 156 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where small trades can move prices dramatically, warranting extreme caution around execution despite the superficially attractive odds.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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