Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.36M open interest, suggesting the 85¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 14¢ spread and 251% realized volatility. The asymmetric implied yields (24.9% vs 799.6%) indicate severe mispricing between the Yes and No sides, with the No position offering an extraordinarily high risk-adjusted yield of 800%, suggesting sophisticated traders may see the 85¢ price as unsustainably high. With 259 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a speculative position with limited market depth rather than an efficiently priced prediction.

Resolution rules

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade