Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?

The Republican contract for IA-01 has collapsed from 30¢ to 27¢ over seven days, now pricing in just a 27% win probability despite 198 days until resolution. The extreme 498% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and a wide 9¢ spread suggests this illiquid market may not reflect true consensus—the realized volatility of 1,775% indicates violent price swings on minimal trading activity. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and an information arrival rate of 2.6 events per hour, this market appears highly reactive to campaign developments, making the current price potentially unstable as we approach the 2026 midterms.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade