Inflation surge in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Inflation surge in 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing February 14, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely high probability (93%) that inflation will surge above 3.5% at some point in 2026, with a sharp 18-cent rally over the past week suggesting recent hawkish economic signals or Fed commentary.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely high probability (93%) that inflation will surge above 3.5% at some point in 2026, with a sharp 18-cent rally over the past week suggesting recent hawkish economic signals or Fed commentary. The asymmetric implied yields—7.7% for Yes versus 1883.7% for No—reflect the market's conviction, though the thin 24-hour volume of $393 against $35.7k open interest raises liquidity concerns and suggests this high price may not reflect deep two-sided trading. With 304 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 58%, the market appears to be pricing in significant tail risk of persistent inflation despite the neutral regime score, though the low information arrival rate (0.3/h) indicates limited recent news flow driving the recent move.
Resolution rules
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 3.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P3.5 yes 100