Inflation surge in 2026
Leader sits at 19% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 4.5%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
At least 5.0%
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Feb 14, 2027
234 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Inflation surge in 2026
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least 4.5%
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least 5.0%
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least 6.0%
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.0
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least 5.5%
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5.5
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least 6.5%
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.5
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 87% likelihood that inflation will exceed 3.6% for the year ending April 2026, with related contracts suggesting meaningful probability mass around 4%+ thresholds. This high probability reflects current economic conditions where price pressures remain elevated relative to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The assessment depends critically on incoming CPI data over the next several months and Fed policy decisions. Core inflation readings above 2.5% are priced at 92¢, indicating broad-based price growth is expected. Key drivers include energy prices, labor market tightness, monetary policy persistence, and consumer spending patterns. The May 2026 CPI release for April data will be a major checkpoint for resolving whether inflation remains entrenched above historical norms or begins subsiding toward target.
- ›Year-to-date CPI data as of May 2026 shows cumulative inflation trajectory relative to 3.6-4.5% annualized thresholds
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and recent interest rate decisions, which influence near-term inflation dynamics through 2026
- ›Core CPI running above 2.5% (priced at 92¢) suggests services and non-energy inflation remain sticky
- ›Energy and commodity price movements, which directly affect headline CPI readings in the April-April measurement window
- ›Labor market conditions and wage growth rates, which influence pricing power and consumer demand through mid-2026
What moved the line
- Jun 18At least 4.5%↑5pp19→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18At least 6.0%↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23At least 5.0%↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18At least 5.5%↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%Above 2.6%last 86% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.