What is the current probability for "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 917.6% and 443.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 41¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 40¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

41¢

$515K volume

$35K liquidity

0% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$127.4M

Best sibling

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Saudi Arabia 0¢

Ticker

0x9049d965…ee96

Price history

41¢ current

+6¢

Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

40 / 42¢

Polymarket

2¢ spread

BidSize

40¢1.4K

39¢334

38¢1.2K

37¢110

36¢1.8K

35¢488

34¢423

33¢337

AskSize

42¢33

44¢500

45¢130

46¢602

47¢10

48¢38

50¢95

51¢35

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x9049d965…ee96

Event family

Middle East / Israel.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$127.4M

Outcomes