Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Maryland with a 94¢ price, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $21k open interest suggest minimal trading activity and potential liquidity concerns. The No side's astronomical 2,859.6% implied yield signals severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, as the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates structural instability in the contract. With nearly two years until the 2026 election, the market appears to be pricing in Maryland's strong Democratic fundamentals, though the lack of recent price movement (93¢ to 94¢ over seven days) and zero spread suggest this is a stale, low-conviction market awaiting more substantive political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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