Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $229.792 in open interest and a massive 23¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The astronomical 17,880% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 2,868% realized volatility and sharp 20¢ price decline over 7 days indicates either severe mispricing or concentrated positions that could face significant slippage if liquidated. With only 14 days to resolution and a 7.0 Cliff Risk Index, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme yields are compensation for execution risk rather than genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade