Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $13.46 in 24-hour volume against $231k open interest, creating a dangerously wide 22¢ spread and inflated yield figures (3013% implied) that reflect pricing inefficiency rather than genuine opportunity. The 47¢ price has declined 8¢ over seven days while volatility remains extraordinarily high at 1418%, suggesting uncertainty about Mexico's Q1 2026 growth trajectory with just 14 days until resolution when the official GDP data releases on April 30. The neutral regime score and 4.3 info arrivals per hour indicate active market discussion, but the combination of thin liquidity, massive spread, and imminent expiry makes this a high-risk venue for position entry or exit.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade