Will Corbin Carroll win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Corbin Carroll win the 2026 National League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Carroll's odds have collapsed 60% over the past week (from 50¢ to 20¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at 6.8 updates per hour, though the market shows virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $77.5K open interest.
Analysis
Carroll's odds have collapsed 60% over the past week (from 50¢ to 20¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival at 6.8 updates per hour, though the market shows virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $77.5K open interest. The 31¢ spread and extreme 698% implied yield on the Yes side indicate this is a highly illiquid, speculative position with substantial cliff risk (index: 4), making the 19% probability potentially unreliable given the 4763% realized volatility and 29x vol ratio.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcb5be7398b6e371840d461a4b8900d5640f390599af6b45b1b24d011195fd6aa yes 100