Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 85¢ reflects strong confidence in retaining NV-04, though the extreme 1116% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and pricing distortion rather than genuine Republican opportunity. With zero 24-hour volume despite $8.8M open interest and a 5¢ spread, this market appears largely dormant, making the 247% realized volatility and 7-point price rise over a week potentially noise from thin trading rather than meaningful information flow. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for fundamentals to shift, but current market structure suggests limited conviction from active traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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